Climate Change Impacts in Costa Rica

     A major impact going in the Costa Rica and the immediate surrounding area that is affecting climate change is the marine ecosystems. This is a biological impact and scientists are very confident that it is greatly affecting the climate of the region. Some other risks going on in Costa Rica and the rest of Central America are water availability and flood problems, decreased food production and food quality, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. There are, however, some ways that these problems can be solved, or at least attempt to be solved. The water availability and flooding is due to extreme precipitation. This can be bettered by integrating a better water resource management, flood management, and early warning systems, including better weather forecasts in order to be better prepared. The decreased food production can be solved by the developing of new crop varieties that are more adapted to the changing climate. Lastly, the spread of vector-borne diseases can be helped by developing early warning systems to stop the spread of these diseases.

     Some of the most interesting things going on in Central America and the Caribbean are not exactly the trends you would expect. Most people picture this area as a tropical climate, which it is, that has nice rain showers and a steady rain stream. In fact, the interesting thing is that the rain in this region is actually decreasing instead of increasing or even remaining the same. The impact of this decreased rain production can only mean one thing. The climate is changing and either the countries in this region need to adapt to that change, or they are going to feel the consequences of Mother Nature. The map below shows this trend.

This image is from: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter14_FINAL.pdf

     Central America and South America are both in for some changes in the near future. To begin with, the annual rainfall, as I mentioned above, is decreasing in Central America, but happens to be increasing in South America. This is causing a slight warming in these areas and causing landslides and flooding in South America due to the slight increase in precipitation. Due to these changes, climate projections are suggesting an increase in temperatures for these two regions and either an increase or decrease in precipitation by the year 2100. The decrease in rainfall would cause water shortages in these regions which would affect not only the people directly, but also the agriculture in the region, which could be a devastating blow to the economy. Another major issue is that the increasing change in climate will also speed up the extinction rate of certain species in these regions. All of these trends can lead to sea level rise which, along with human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems, would be catastrophic to fish stocks, corals, mangroves, recreation and tourism, and also the spread of diseases throughout the region. These diseases, along with the changing climate, would cause increased mortality rate, morbidity, and disabilities in these countries. For many of these countries, the first step toward adaption to future climate changes is to reduce the vulnerability to present climate.

     By the end of the 21^st century, South America could lose between 1% and 21% of its arable land. Think about that for a minute. South America could lose up to 1/5 of its arable land by the end of the century. Arable land is land that is able to be used for agriculture and farming. This means that the land that this entire region relies on for its own food source and economy will take an enormous blow. This loss of land would be due to both climate change and population growth. This could be slowed down and helped by a few things including better land management along with efficient agricultural practices, which the region does not have. I chose to talk about food production because food is not only vital to the lives of everyone in this area, but the economy could suffer dramatically if the export of these foods was suddenly halted. Many of the people in this region rely on agriculture to either provide food for their families or to provide income in order to be able to provide food, water, and shelter for their families. If 21% of the arable land in this region were to be lost, then 21% of the people relying on this land would also be in huge trouble. These people are not in trouble yet, but if nothing is done to slow down the loss of this land, then the people and their future generations will suffer the consequences. The chart below shows the decrease in agriculture (blue) over the next century. 

This image is from: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

Severe Weather in Costa Rica

Tornadoes are extremely rare in Costa Rica and even those that do form are not very powerful. In order for a tornado to form it must follow a few steps. The first object that forms is a rotating body of air at the ground which occurs due to wind sheer, meaning that wind speeds increase as you increase in altitude. Secondly, horizontal rotating air is lifted off the ground by the updraft of a thunderstorm. Once the horizontal rotating air mass is nearly lifted vertically it is considered a mesocyclone. Lastly, the mesocyclone is fully developed in the updraft of a thunderstorm which completes the process of forming a tornado. Tornadoes, in the US, tend to move from Southwest to Northeast due to the upper level jet stream caused by the fronts of Canada and the US colliding. There have only been 3 recorded tornadoes in the past 10 years in Costa Rica, all category EF-0 meaning they ranged from 65-85 mph. They all left little damage, harmed no one, and quickly dissipated. Compared to Costa Rica, the US sees an average of 1253 tornadoes per year.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology
Although it is hard to see above, Costa Rica lies directly above South America on the left side of the mad and does not experience tornadoes like other countries in the world do (Those with the shaded areas experience more). Over the past 30 years, the number of tornadoes has increased quite dramatically. This could be due to global warming and the increase of areas with warm air which are breeding grounds for tornadoes.

Hurricanes on the other hand are a different kind of natural disaster that can be quite terrifying depending on their strength and where they hit. Tornadoes are formed in places with warm ocean temperatures (upwards of 80 degrees Fahrenheit), deep warm ocean layer (at least 200 meters in depth), and the coriolis of the earth is needed to initiate the spinning. All three of these have to be present, as well as the country lying between 5 degrees N or S and 20 degrees N or S. Costa Rica fits all of these criteria, except that the ocean isn't quite deep enough as it sits just under 200 meters in depth. Hurricanes have different names depending on where they are in the world. They are called hurricanes in the Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans, Cyclones in the Indian Ocean near Australia, and Typhoons off the coast of China and Indonesia.  Here is a map to help better visualize:
http://fall2013elsalvador.blogspot.com/2013_11_01_archive.html
As you can see from the map, hurricanes travel from Southeast to Northwest in the US, primarily up the East coast. About 2 hurricanes hit the US each year while Costa Rica doesn't experience any.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology
http://www.weatherexplained.com/Vol-1/Hurricanes.html

Daily Weather in Costa Rica

The forecast in San Jose, Costa Rica over this beautiful 3 day weekend is as follows. On Friday April 3rd, the forecasted high is 85 degrees Fahrenheit while the low is 68. The chance of precipitation is about 11%. On Saturday April 4th, the forecasted high is 86 with a low of 68. The chance of precipitation on Saturday is about 4%. On the final day of this weekend, April 5th (Easter), the forecasted high is 87 degrees with a low of 66. The chance of precipitation on Sunday is about 3%. The average pressure over these 3 days is 29.8 inHg (inches of Mercury). Overall, the pressure slightly decreased over this weekend. The average wind speed throughout these 3 days is about 15 mph with winds blowing Northeast  and the wind speed will slightly increase as the weekend goes on.

As you can see from the image above, there are no clouds very close to Costa Rica. The few that appear in the radar image are a good distance from the coast and are warm clouds. The green and blue spots inside these clouds show precipitation and, as you can see, Costa Rica is seeing none of that as it is all falling over the ocean. Although this picture is fairly zoomed out (in order to be able to see the clouds), there is quite a bit of vegetation throughout the country. Most of the country has at least some parts of green on the map while there are few areas that have no vegetation at all.

In the image above, notice that there are high pressure and low pressure isobars not too far from each other. The high pressure runs right along where the capital city of San Jose is located in the northern part of Costa Rica while the low pressure is located over the Northwestern part of South America. In the image below, you can see many more pressure systems and also fronts because of the larger scale. Unfortunately, there wasn't a larger scale map that included Costa Rica so I picked the map that came the closest to Central America. In the large scale map there are many more low pressure systems that run throughout the united states in comparison to the high pressure systems. There are also cold fronts located throughout these pressure systems that also run along the United States. All of these pressure systems in fronts shown in the below image are located to the North of Costa Rica.